Journal Publications

  1. Collins, A. J., R. M. Robinson, C. A. Jordan and A. Khattak. “Development of a Traffic Incident Model Involving Multiple Municipalities for Inclusion in Large Microscopic Evacuation Simulations.” International journal of disaster risk reduction, (accepted December 2017).
  2. Robinson, R. M., A. J. Collins, A. Khattak, C. A. Jordan and P. Foytik (2017). “Modeling the Impact of Traffic Incidents during Hurricane Evacuations using a Large-Scale Microsimulation.” International journal of disaster risk reduction, (accepted September 2017)
  3. Collins, A.J. and E. Frydenlund (2018). “Strategic Group Formation in Agent-based Modeling and Simulation.” Simulation, 94(3), 179-193.
  4. Vernon-Bido, D., A. J. Collins, J. A. Sokolowski, and M. J. Seiler (2017). “Using Real Property Layouts to Study the Foreclosure Contagion Effect in Real Estate with Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation.” Journal of Housing Research, 26(2): 137-155. ISSN: 1052-7001.
  5. Hester, P., B. Ezell, A. J. Collins, J. Horst, J. and K. Lawsure (2017). “Toward a Method for Key Performance Indicator Assessment and Improvement in Manufacturing Organizations.” International Journal of Operations Research, 14(4), 157-167.
  6. Elize, T., E. Frydenlund, A.  J. Collins, and R. M. Robinson (2016). “Panic That Spreads: Socio-Behavioral Contagions in Pedestrian Evacuations.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2586: 1-8. ISSN: 0361-1981
  7. Collins, A. J., R. M. Robinson, C. A. Jordan, P. Foytik and B. C. Ezell (2016). “Integrating a Simple Traffic Incident Model for Rapid Evacuation Analysis.” International Journal of Transportation, 4(3), 15-32. ISSN: 2287-7940
  8. Hester, P., A.J. Collins, B. Ezell, and J. Horst (2016). “A Review of Problem Structuring Methods for Consideration in Prognostics and Smart Manufacturing.” International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management, 7:Sp5, 016, 1-12. ISSN: 2153-2648.
  9. Collins, A. J., Hester, B. Ezell, and J. Horst (2016). “An improvement selection methodology for Key Performance Indicators.” Environment, Systems and Decisions, 36(2), 196-208. ISSN: 2194-5403
  10. Collins, A. J., D. W. Flanagan and B. Ezell (2015). “Analysis of the Cost of Emergency Managers’ Meeting Load: A Hampton Road Case-study.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 12(1):169-191. ISSN: 2194-6361
  11. Collins, A. J., Petty, D. Vernon-Bido and S. Sherfey (2015). “Call to Arms: Standards for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. Special Issue on Engineering Agent-Based Social Simulations 18(3): 12. ISSN: 1460-7425
  12. Elzie, T., E. Frydenlund, J. Collins and R. M. Robinson (2015). “Conceptualizing Intragroup and Intergroup Dynamics Within a Controlled Crowd Evacuation.” Journal of Emergency Management 13(2):109-120. ISSN: 1543-5865
  13. Collins, A. J., M. Harrison and M. J. Seiler (2015). “Mortgage Modification and the Decision to Strategically Default: A Game Theoretic Approach.” Journal of Real Estate Research 37(3): 439-470. ISSN: 0896-5803
  14. Collins, A. J., E. Frydenlund, R. M. Robinson and M. Cetin (2015). “Exploring a Toll Auction Mechanism Enabled By Vehicle-To-Infrastructure Technology.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2530: 106-113. ISSN: 0361-1981
  15. Collins, A. J., J. A. Sokolowski and C. Banks (2014). “Applying Reinforcement Learning to an Insurgency Agent-based Simulation.” Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation 11(4): 353-364. ISSN: 1548-5129
  16. Collins, A. J., P. Foytik, E. Frydenlund, R. M. Robinson and C. A. Jordan (2014). “Generic Incident Model for Investigating Traffic Incident Impacts on Evacuation Times in Large-Scale Emergencies.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2459: 11-17. ISSN: 0361-1981
  17. Collins, A. J., M. J. Seiler, M. Gangel and M. Croll (2013). “Applying Latin hypercube sampling to agent-based models: Understanding foreclosure contagion effects.” International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis 6(4): 422-437. ISSN: 1753-8270
  18. Seiler, M., A. J. Collins and N. H. Fefferman (2013). “Strategic Mortgage Default in the Context of a Social Network: An Epidemiological Approach.” Journal of Real Estate Research 35(4): 445-475. ISSN: 0896-5803
  19. Gangel, M., M. J. Seiler and A. J. Collins (2013). “Latin Hypercube Sampling and the Identification of the Foreclosure Contagion Threshold.” Journal of Behavioral Finance 14(2): 149-159. ISSN: 1542-7560
  20. Gangel, M., M. J. Seiler and A. J. Collins (2013). “Exploring the foreclosure contagion effect using agent-based modeling.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 46(2): 339-354. ISSN: 0895-5638
  21. Collins, A. and L. Thomas (2013). “Learning competitive dynamic airline pricing under different customer models.” Journal of Revenue & Pricing Management 12(5): 416-430. ISSN: 1476-6930
  22. Collins, A. J., B. Vegesana, M. J. Seiler, P. O’Shea, P. Hettiarachchi and F. McKenzie (2013). “Simulation and mathematical programming decision-making support for smallholder farming.” Environment Systems & Decisions 33(3): 427-439. ISSN: 2194-5403
  23. Ezell, B. C., J. Behr and A. Collins (2012). “Identifying Factors that Influence Terrorist Decisions and Target Selection.” Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 9(1): 8. ISSN: 2194-6361
  24. Collins, A. and L. Thomas (2012). “Comparing reinforcement learning approaches for solving game theoretic models: a dynamic airline pricing game example.” Journal of the Operational Research Society 63(8): 1165-1173. ISSN: 0160-5682
  25. Ezell, B.C., S.P. Bennett, D. von Winterfeldt, J. Sokolowski and Collins (2010). “Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk.” Risk Analysis 30(4): 575-589. ISSN: 0272-4332

Working Papers

  • Collins, A. J., Shull, J., and Thaviphoke, Y. “The Need for Simple Educational Case-studies to Show the Benefit of Soft Operations Research to Real-world Problems” (Submitted to the International Journal of Systems of Systems Engineering)
  • Frydenlund, E., A.J. Collins, and R.M. Robinson. “Verification of Large-scale Simulations using Acceptance Sampling.” (Submitted to Simulation).
  • Gore, R., M. Robinson, C. A. Jordan, C. Cornelius, and A.J. Collins. “Modeling The Health Effects Of Adding Bicycle Paths At The Census Tract-Level.” (Submitted to Journal of Transport & Health)
  • Thaviphoke, Y., A.J. Collins, and P. Hester. “Getting Problem Structuring techniques and simulation in front of decision-makers.” (In preparation for International Journal of System of Systems Engineering)
  • Wang, X., N. Huhe, N. and A.J. Collins. “Popularity or Proclivity? Agent Heterogeneity in Social Network Formation.”
  • Collins, A.J., C. A. Jordan, R. M. Robinson, C. Cornelius, and R. Gore. “Clustering Cities for Bicycle Infrastructure Planning.”
  • Collins, A.J. “Strategic group formation in Agent-based Modeling: El Farol bar problem application.”

Conference Papers

  1. Leathrum, J. F., R. R. Mielke, A. J. Collins, and M. A. Audette (2017) “Proposed Unified Discrete Event Simulation Content Roadmap for M&S Curricula,” 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, Las Vegas, NV, December 3-6.
  2. Collins, A. J. (2017). Strategic group formation in the El Farol bar problem. The Computational Social Science Society of Americas, Santa Fe, NM, October 19-22: 1-6.
  3. Collins, A. J. (2017). “Strategically forming groups in the El Farol bar problem.” Swarmfest 2017: 21st Annual Meeting on Agent-based Modeling & Simulation, Suffolk, VA, August 11-13th: 1-11.
  4. Collins, A. J., V. Cornelius, and J. Sokolowski (2017). “Agent-based Model of Criminal Gang Formation.” 2017 Spring Simulation Multi-conference, Virginia Beach, VA.
  5. Collins, A. J., Vernon-Bido and J. E. Lane (2017). “Individual Strategic Behavior in a Team Formation Agent-based Simulation.” 2017 Spring Simulation Multi-conference, Virginia Beach, VA.
  6. Vernon-Bido, D., and A.J. Collins (2017). “Dynamics of Knowledge-Seeking Interactions in Organizational Networks.” 2017 Spring Simulation Multi-conference, Virginia Beach, VA.
  7. Jordan, C., P. Foytik, A. J. Collins, and, R. M. Robinson (2017). “Development of a Future Year Large-Scale Microscopic Traffic Simulation Model.” 96th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 8-12, 17-05850.
  8. Collins, A. J., E. Frydenlund, R. M. Robinson and M. Cetin (2017). “Survey Informed Value of Time Distributions Estimates in a Tolling Auction.” 96th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 8-12, 17-00977.
  9. Collins, A. J., and E. Frydenlund (2016). “Agent-based modeling and Strategic group formation: A refugee case study,” Proceedings of the 2016 Winter Simulation Conference, Washington, D.C., December 11-14.
  10. Collins, A. J., and P. T. Hester (2016). “Why are all the softies in Europe? A discussion of the lack of penetration of soft OR in the US,” NATO 10th Annual Operations Research and Analysis Conference, STO-MP-SAS-ORS-ORA-2016, Norfolk, VA, October 17-18.
  11. Frydenlund, E., A. J. Collins, C. Jordan, P. Foytik, and R. M. Robinson. “When the money runs dry: A system dynamics approach to critical infrastructure investment.” 2016 Spring Simulation Conference, Pasadena, CA, April 3-6.
  12. Collins, A.J. and E. Frydenlund. “Strategic Coalition Formation in Agent-based Modeling and Simulation.” 2016 Spring Simulation Conference, Pasadena, CA, April 3-6.
  13. Collins, A. J., E. Frydenlund, R. M. Robinson and M. Cetin (2016). “Comparing Value of Time Distributions in a Tolling Auction Mechanism Enabled by Vehicle-To-Infrastructure Technology.” 95th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 10-14, 16-5030.
  14. Elize, T., E. Frydenlund, A. J. Collins, and R. M. Robinson (2016). “Panic That Spreads: Socio-Behavioral Contagions in Pedestrian Evacuations.” 95th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 10-14. 16-4190.
  15. Collins, A.J., Knowles Ball, D., and J. Romberger (2015). “A Discussion on Simulations’ Visualization Usage.” 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, Huntington Beach, CA, December 6-9.
  16. Sherfey, S., A. J. Collins, P. Moses and S. X. Marsillac (2015). Impacts of Market Behavior on Distributed Energy, 2015 Spring Simulation Multi-Conference, Alexandria, VA, April 12-17.
  17. Collins, A. J., E. Frydenlund, T. Elzie, and R. M. Robinson (2015). Agent-based Pedestrian Evacuation Modeling: A one-size fits all approach? 2015 Spring Simulation Multi-Conference, Alexandria, VA, April 12-17.
  18. Vernon-Bido, D., A. J. Collins, and J. Sokolowski (2015). Evaluation of Simulation Visualization, 2015 Spring Simulation Multi-Conference, Alexandria, VA, April 12-17.
  19. Collins, A. J., D. Knowles Ball and J. Romberger (2015). Simulation Visualization Issues for Users and Customers, 2015 Spring Simulation Multi-Conference, Alexandria, VA, April 12-17.
  20. Lawsure, K., B. Ezell, A. J. Collins, J. Horst and P. Hester. Web Enabled Selection Method for Key Performance Indicators for Manufacturing, MODSIM World Conference & Expo 2015, Virginia Beach Convention Center, Virginia Beach, VA, March 31 – April 2, 2015.
  21. Elzie, T. L., E. F. Frydenlund, A. J. Collins, and R. M. Robinson. Fundamental Building Blocks for Vehicle-Pedestrian Interaction in Emergency Evacuations, MODSIM World Conference & Expo 2015, Virginia Beach Convention Center, Virginia Beach, VA, March 31 – April 2, 2015.
  22. Collins, A. J., E. Frydenlund, R. M. Robinson and M. Cetin (2015). Exploring a Toll Auction Mechanic Enabled By Vehicle-To-Infrastructure Technology. 94th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 11-15, 15-2825.
  23. Frydenlund, E., A. J. Collins, T. Elzie and R. M. Robinson (2015). Group Dynamics and Exit-Blocking Behaviors: A look at pedestrian modeling evacuations. 94th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 11-15, 15-4613.
  24. Wang, X. and Collins, A. J. (2014). “Popularity or Proclivity? Revisiting Agent Heterogeneity in Network Formation.” Proceeding of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference, Savannah, GA, December, 7-10, 2014, 3084-3095.
  25. Frydenlund, E., T. Elzie, A. J. Collins and R. M. Robinson (2014). “A Hybridized Approach to Validation: The Role of Sociological Research Methods in Pedestrian Modeling.” Transportation Research Procedia. 7th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Delft, the Netherlands, October 22-24, 2014. 2: 697-705 (DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2014.09.077)
  26. Collins, A. J., T. Elzie, E. Frydenlund and R. M. Robinson (2014). Do Groups Matter? An Agent-based Modeling Approach to Pedestrian Egress. Transportation Research Procedia . 7th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Delft, the Netherlands, October 22-24, 2014. 2:430-435 (DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2014.09.051)
  27. Collins, A. J., Knowles Ball and J. Romberger (2014). “Exploring the “Whys” of Simulation Visualization.” MODSIM World Conference & Expo 2014, Hampton Road Convention Center, Hampton, VA, April 15 – 17, 2014.
  28. Collins, A. J., P. Foytik, E. Frydenlund, R. M. Robinson and C. A. Jordan (2014). “Investigating the Impact of Traffic Incidents on Large-scale Emergency Evacuation Times using a Generic Incident Model.” TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers, 93rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January 12-16, 14-1735.
  29. Collins, A. J., M. Robinson, C. A. Jordan, P. Foytik and B. C. Ezell (2014). “Exploring the Effects of Traffic Incidents within an Evacuation Simulation.” 2014 National Evacuation Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 7-10.
  30. Foytik, P., R. M. Robinson and A. J. Collins (2014). “Exploring Evacuee Rate of Arrival with Varying Response Time for Large Scale Vehicle Evacuations.” 2014 National Evacuation Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 7-10.
  31. Elzie, T., E. Frydenlund, A. J. Collins and R. M. Robinson (2014). “How Individual and Group Dynamics Affect Decision Making.” 2014 National Evacuation Conference, New Orleans, LA, January 7-10.
  32. Collins, A. J., R. M. Robinson, C. A. Jordan, P. Foytik and B. C. Ezell (2013). “Generic Incident Model for Use in Large-Scale Evacuation Simulations.” 2013 IEEE International Conference on Technologies for Homeland Security, Waltham, MA, November 12-14, pp. 26-31.
  33. Flanagan, D., A. J. Collins and B. Ezell (2013). “Reducing Stakeholder Fatigue: Integrating Governing Bodies, Committees and Working Groups Contribution to Risk Mitigation.” MODSIM World Conference & Expo 2013, Hampton Road Convention Center, Hampton, VA, April 30 – May 2.
  34. Seiler, M. J., A. J. Collins and N. H. Fefferman (2013). “Strategic Mortgage Default of a Social Network.” The American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) 2013 Annual Conference, San Diego, CL, January 4-6.
  35. Seiler, M. J., A. J. Collins and N. H. Fefferman (2012). “Preventing the Spread of a Financial Contagion through a Social Network: An Epidemiological Approach.” American Real Estate Society- 28th Annual Meeting, St. Petersburg, FL, April 17 – 21.
  36. Collins, A. J., Meyr, S. Sherfey, A. Tolk and M. Petty (2012). “The Value of Modeling and Simulation Standards.” Proceedings of the 2012 Autumn Simulation Multi-conference, San Diego, CA, October 28-31, 2012, DMMS 1, ISBN: 1-56555-349-7.
  37. Collins, A. J., J. Seiler and M. Gangel (2012). “Using Agent-based Modeling to Simulate the Foreclosure Contagion Effect.” The 2012 Southeastern INFORMS Conference Proceedings, 48th Annual Meeting of Southeastern Chapter of INFORMS, Myrtle Beach, SC, October 4-5, pp. 237-242.
  38. Knowles Ball, D. and A. J. Collins (2012). “Simulation visualization rhetoric and its practical implications.” The 2012 Southeastern INFORMS Conference Proceedings, 48th Annual Meeting of Southeastern Chapter of INFORMS, Myrtle Beach, SC, October 4-5, pp. 584-591.
  39. Petty, M. D., R. L. Dunning and A. J. Collins (2012). “Expanded Analysis of the Correlation of Characterizing Attributes and Success in Military M&S Standards.” Proceedings of AlaSim International, Huntsville, AL, May 1-3.
  40. Turnitsa, C. D., A. J. Collins, D. Meyr and S. Sherfey (2012). “Financial Implications of Modeling and Simulation Standards: Practical Aspects and Theoretical Analysis.” Proceedings of the Spring 2012 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Orlando, FL, March 26-30, pp. 188-200.
  41. Collins, A. J. and P. Hester (2011). “Colonel Blotto Games and Lancaster’s Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination.” Selected Papers presented at MODSIM World 2011 Conference and Expo, T.E. Pinelli and L.S. Bullock (eds.), Virginia Beach, VA, October 12-14, pp. 93 – 99.
  42. Provance, M., A. J. Collins and E. Carayannis (2011). “An Agent-based Model of New Venture Creation: Conceptual Design for Simulating Entrepreneurship.” Selected Papers presented at MODSIM World 2011 Conference and Expo, T. E. Pinelli and L.S. Bullock (eds.), Virginia Beach, VA, October 12-14, pp. 299 – 304.
  43. Petty, M. D., L. Dunning and A. J. Collins (2011). “Correlation of Characterizing Attributes and Success in Military M&S Standards.” Proceedings of the Fall 2011 Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Orlando, FL, September 19-23, pp.188-200.
  44. Collins, A. J., Y. Diallo, S. R. Sherfey, A. Tolk, C. D. Turnitsa, M. Petty and E. Weisel (2010). “Standards in Modeling and Simulation: The Next Ten Years.” Selected Papers and Presentations presented at MODSIM World 2010 Conference and Expo, Hampton, VA, October 13-15, pp.68 – 73.
  45. Gangel, M., M. J. Seiler and A. J. Collins (2010). “Exploring the Foreclosure Contagion Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling.” Maastricht-NUS-MIT Symposium, Dedham, MA, November, 18 -20.
  46. Gangel, M., M. Seiler and A. Collins (2010). “The Creation of an Agent-Based Mortgage Contagion Simulation Model.” American Real Estate Society – 26th Annual Meeting, Naples, FL, April 14 – 17.

Book Chapters

  1. Ezell, B. C., S. P. Bennett, D. Von Winterfeldt, J. A. Sokolowski and A. J. Collins (2017). Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk. In Improving Homeland Security Decisions, A. E. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
  2. Collins, A. J. and D. Knowles Ball (2013). “Philosophical and Theoretic Underpinnings of Simulation Visualization Rhetoric and Their Practical Implications.” In Ontology, Epistemology, and Teleology of Modeling and Simulation – Philosophical Foundations for Intelligent M&S Applications, Tolk, A., ed., Heidelberg: springer, pp. 173-192.
  3. Collins, A. J. and C. Currie (2012). “Operations Research, In Handbook of Modeling and Simulation Real-world Applications.” Sokolowski, J. A., Banks, C. M., eds. Hoboken: Wiley, pp. 165 – 206.
  4. Hester, P. and Collins, A. J. (2012). Mathematical Applications for Combat Modeling, In Engineering Principles of Combat Modeling and Distributed Simulation, Tolk, A., ed. Hoboken: Wiley, pp. 385-412.

Other Publications

  1. Collins, A. J., and E. Frydenlund (2015). “Academic revenue management and quantitative worship.” Journal of Revenue & Pricing Management 14(1), 50-56.
  2. Turnitsa, C. D., A. J. Collins, D. Meyr and S. Sherfey (2013). “Financial Implications of Modeling and Simulation Standards: Practical Aspects and Theoretical Analysis.” M&S Journal 8(1), Spring 2013: 9-18 (Reprint of paper in Proceedings of the 2012 Spring Simulation Interoperability Workshop (SIW)).
  3. Petty, M. D., R. L. Dunning and A. J. Collins (2013). “Correlation of Characterizing Attributes and Success in Military M&S Standards.” M&S Journal 8(1), Spring 2013: 19-30.
  4. Collins, A. J. (2012). “Which is Worse: Large-scale Simulations or the 80% Solution?” SCS M&S Magazine, 2012, No. 10 (Apr), ISBN 1-56555-374-8, pp.27 – 38.

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